A polygenetic risk score combined with environmental factors better predict susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate environmental factors and genetic variant loci associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Chinese population and construct a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) and polygenic risk score (PRS). METHODS: A case-control study was applied to confirm the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and environmental variables linked to HCC in the Chinese population, which had been screened by meta-analyses. wGRS and PRS were built in training sets and validation sets. Area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were applied to evaluate the performance of the models. RESULTS: A total of 13 SNPs were included in both risk prediction models. Compared with wGRS, PRS had better accuracy and discrimination ability in predicting HCC risk. The AUC for PRS in combination with drinking history, cirrhosis, HBV infection, and family history of HCC in training sets and validation sets (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.84-0.89; AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) increased at least 20% than the AUC for PRS alone (AUC: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.60-0.67; AUC: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.60-0.71). CONCLUSIONS: A novel model combining PRS with alcohol history, HBV infection, cirrhosis, and family history of HCC could be applied as an effective tool for risk prediction of HCC, which could discriminate at-risk individuals for precise prevention.

Clinician-Level Knowledge and Barriers to Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance.

Importance: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis is underused. Identifying potentially modifiable factors to address barriers in HCC surveillance is critical to improve patient outcomes. Objective: To evaluate clinician-level factors contributing to underuse of HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study included primary care clinicians (PCCs) and gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians at 5 safety-net health systems in the US. Clinicians were surveyed from March 15 to September 15, 2023, to assess knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, perceived barriers, and COVID-19-related disruptions in HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Data were analyzed from October to November 2023. Main Outcome and Measures: HCC surveillance knowledge was assessed with 6 questions querying the respondent's ability to correctly identify appropriate use of HCC surveillance. Attitudes, perceived barriers, and beliefs regarding HCC surveillance and perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions with HCC surveillance were assessed with a series of statements using a 4-point Likert scale and compared PCCs and gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians. Results: Overall, 347 of 1362 clinicians responded to the survey (25.5% response rate), among whom 142 of 237 (59.9%) were PCCs, 48 of 237 (20.3%) gastroenterology and hepatology, 190 of 236 (80.5%) were doctors of medicine and doctors of osteopathic medicine, and 46 of 236 (19.5%) were advanced practice clinicians. On HCC knowledge assessment, 144 of 270 (53.3%) scored 5 or more of 6 questions correctly, 37 of 48 (77.1%) among gastroenterology and hepatology vs 65 of 142 (45.8%) among PCCs (P < .001). Those with higher HCC knowledge scores were less likely to report barriers to HCC surveillance. PCCs were more likely to report inadequate time to discuss HCC surveillance (37 of 139 [26.6%] vs 2 of 48 [4.2%]; P = .001), difficulty identifying patients with cirrhosis (82 of 141 [58.2%] vs 5 of 48 [10.4%]; P < .001), and were not up-to-date with HCC surveillance guidelines (87 of 139 [62.6%] vs 5 of 48 [10.4%]; P < .001) compared with gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians. While most acknowledged delays during the COVID-19 pandemic, 62 of 136 PCCs (45.6%) and 27 of 45 gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians (60.0%) reported that patients with cirrhosis could currently complete HCC surveillance without delays. Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, important gaps in knowledge and perceived barriers to HCC surveillance were identified. Effective delivery of HCC education to PCCs and health system-level interventions must be pursued in parallel to address the complex barriers affecting suboptimal HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance among people living with hepatitis B in Senegal (SEN-B): insights from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the predominant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in west Africa, yet data on the incidence of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain scarce. We aimed to describe the uptake and early outcomes of systematic ultrasound-based hepatocellular carcinoma screening in SEN-B, which is a prospective HBV cohort in Senegal. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we included treatment-naive, HBsAg-positive individuals who were referred to the two infectious diseases clinics (the Department of Tropical and Infectious Diseases and Ambulatory Treatment Center) at Fann University Hospital of Dakar, Senegal, between Oct 1, 2019, and Oct 31, 2022. All participants resided within the Dakar region. Participants underwent abdominal ultrasound, transient elastography, and clinical and virological assessments at inclusion and every 6 months. Liver lesions at least 1 cm in diameter on ultrasound were assessed using four-phase CT, MRI, or liver biopsy. Adherence to hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance was measured using the proportion of time covered, calculated by dividing the cumulative months covered by abdominal ultrasound examinations by the overall follow-up time, defined as the number of months from the date of cohort entry until the last recorded visit, hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis, or death. Optimal adherence was defined as a proportion of time covered of 100%. FINDINGS: Overall, 755 (99·6%) of 758 participants had at least one abdominal ultrasound performed. The median age of the enrolled participants was 31 years (IQR 25-39), 355 (47·0%) of 755 participants were women, and 82 (10·9%) had a family history of hepatocellular carcinoma. 15 (2·0%) of 755 individuals were HBeAg positive, 206 (27·3%) of 755 individuals had HBV DNA of more than 2000 IU/mL, and 27 (3·6%) of 755 had elastography-defined liver cirrhosis. Of ten (1·3%) participants with a focal lesion at least 1 cm at initial assessment, CT or MRI ruled out hepatocellular carcinoma in nine, whereas imaging and subsequent liver biopsy confirmed one patient with hepatocellular carcinoma. Two further patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were diagnosed at study presentation due to the presence of portal thrombosis on ultrasound. Excluding the three participants with hepatocellular carcinoma identified at baseline, 752 participants were eligible for screening every 6 months. Median follow-up time was 12 months (IQR 6-18) and the median number of ultrasounds per patient was 3 (2-4). During 809·5 person-years of follow-up, one incident hepatocellular carcinoma was reported, resulting in an incidence rate of 1·24 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·18-8·80). Overall, 702 (93·0%) of 755 participants showed optimal hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, but this proportion decreased to 77·8% (42 of 54 participants) after 24 months. INTERPRETATION: Hepatocellular carcinoma screening is feasible in HBV research cohorts in west Africa, but its longer-term acceptability needs to be evaluated. Long-term hepatocellular carcinoma incidence data are crucial for shaping tailored screening recommendations. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Cancer Research Foundation, the National Cancer Institute, and Roche Diagnostics. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Lifestyle factors, glycemic traits, and lipoprotein traits and risk of liver cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

The current state of knowledge on the relationship between lifestyle factors, glycemic traits, lipoprotein traits with liver cancer risk is still uncertain despite some attempts made by observational studies. This study aims to investigate the causal genetic relationship between factors highly associated with liver cancer incidence by using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Employing MR analysis, this study utilized previously published GWAS datasets to investigate whether lifestyle factors, glycemic traits, and lipoprotein traits would affect the risk of liver cancer. The study utilized three MR methods, including inverse variance-weighted model (IVW), MR Egger, and weighted median. Furthermore, MR-Egger analyses were performed to detect heterogeneity in the MR results. The study also conducted a leave-one-out analysis to assess the potential influence of individual SNPs on the MR analysis results. MR-PRESSO was used to identify and remove SNP outliers associated with liver cancer. MR analyses revealed that 2-h glucose (odds ratio, OR 2.33, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.28-4.21), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.37), body mass index (BMI, OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.37), waist circumference (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.18-2.37) were associated with increased risk of liver cancer. On the contrary, apolipoproteins B (APOB, OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.97), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL, OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.42-0.92) were negatively related to liver cancer risk. Additionally, after adjusting for BMI, apolipoproteins A-I (APOA-I, OR 0.56, 95% CI, 0.38-0.81), total cholesterol (TC, OR 0.72, 95% CI, 0.54-0.94), and total triglycerides (TG, OR 0.57, 95% CI, 0.40-0.78) exhibited a significant inverse correlation with the risk of liver cancer. This study supports a causal relationship between 2-h glucose, T2DM, BMI, and waist circumference with the increased risk of liver cancer. Conversely, the study reveals a cause-effect relationship between TC, TG, LDL, APOA-I, and APOB with a decreased risk of liver cancer.

Factor modification in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and liver cancer risk in a nationwide cohort.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The effect modification by smoking and menopausal status in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and liver cancer risk has not been reported. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included 4.486 million cancer-free individuals among those who underwent national cancer screening in 2010 and were followed up until December 2017. We conducted analyses in populations that excluded people with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis (Model I) and that included those diseases (Model III). HDL-C level was classified into eight groups at 10-mg/dL intervals. Liver cancer risk by HDL-C was measured using adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During follow-up, 18 795 liver cancers in Model I and 20 610 liver cancers in Model III developed. In Model I, low HDL-C levels (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.65-2.04) and extremely high HDL-C levels (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.40) were associated with an increased liver cancer risk compared with a moderate HDL-C level of 50-59mg/dL. This association was similar in both men and women with larger effect size in men (aHR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.70-2.15). The hazardous association between low HDL-C and liver cancer risk was remarkable in current smokers (aHR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.84-2.60) and in pre-menopausal women (aHR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.29-6.58) compared with post-menopausal women (aHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.10-1.93). This association was similarly observed in Model III. CONCLUSIONS: Low and extremely high HDL-C levels were associated with an increased liver cancer risk. The unfavourable association between low HDL-C and liver cancer was remarkable in smokers and pre-menopausal women.

Cholangiocarcinoma and Occupational Exposure to Asbestos: Insights From the Italian Pooled Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies supported the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CC). Aim of the present study is to investigate this association using an update of mortality data from the Italian pooled asbestos cohort study and to test record linkage to Cancer Registries to distinguish between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic/extrahepatic forms of CC. METHODS: The update of a large cohort study pooling 52 Italian industrial cohorts of workers formerly exposed to asbestos was carried out. Causes of death were coded according to ICD. Linkage was carried out for those subjects who died for liver or bile duct cancer with data on histological subtype provided by Cancer Registries. RESULTS: 47 cohorts took part in the study (57,227 subjects). We identified 639 causes of death for liver and bile duct cancer in the 44 cohorts covered by Cancer Registry. Of these 639, 240 cases were linked to Cancer Registry, namely 14 CC, 83 HCC, 117 cases with unspecified histology, 25 other carcinomas, and one case of cirrhosis (likely precancerous condition). Of the 14 CC, 12 occurred in 2010-2019, two in 2000-2009, and none before 2000. CONCLUSION: Further studies are needed to explore the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and CC. Record linkage was hampered due to incomplete coverage of the study areas and periods by Cancer Registries. The identification of CC among unspecific histology cases is fundamental to establish more effective and targeted liver cancer screening strategies.

Insulin Use and The Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Insights and Implications.

In recent years, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing worldwide, in the context of an increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In patients with diabetes mellitus, exogenous insulin is commonly prescribed and used in long-term settings. Recent studies suggest that insulin use may elevate the risk of HCC. A substantial body of work seeks to unpack the association between insulin use and the risk of developing HCC, although there may be conflicting evidence. Further validation is necessary to clarify the true relationship between insulin mechanisms and its hepatocarcinogenic effect. Given the burden of diabetic patients developing HCC, diabetologists and hepatologists must collaborate, particularly regarding the prevention and surveillance of HCC in diabetic patients.

Paraneoplastic Syndromes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Epidemiology, and Survival: A Retrospective Seven Years Study.

Background and Objectives: Liver cancer poses a significant global health threat, ranking among the top three causes of cancer-related deaths. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often present with symptoms associated with neoplasms or unusual clinical features such as paraneoplastic syndromes (PNS), including hypoglycemia, hypercholesterolemia, thrombocytosis, and erythrocytosis. Our study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and survival outcomes associated with PNS in HCC patients and assess each PNS's impact on patient survival. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of PNS clinical features and survival among consecutive HCC patients diagnosed at our department over seven years, comparing them with HCC patients without PNS. The study involved a retrospective data evaluation from 378 patients diagnosed with HCC between January 2016 and October 2023. Results: We obtained a PNS prevalence of 25.7%, with paraneoplastic hypercholesterolemia at 10.9%, hypoglycemia at 6.9%, erythrocytosis at 4.5%, and thrombocytosis at 3.4%. Patients with PNS tended to be younger and predominantly male. Multivariate analysis revealed a strong correlation between PNS and levels of alpha-fetoprotein and tumor size, with diabetes also showing a significant statistical association (p < 0.05). Subgroup analysis based on specific paraneoplastic syndromes demonstrated shorter survival in patients with PNS, albeit without significant statistical differences, except for hypoglycemia (p < 0.0001). Matched analysis indicated a shorter survival rate for patients with PNS, although no significant statistical differences were observed. Conclusions: PNS are frequently observed in HCC cases and are associated with unfavorable prognoses and decreased survival rates due to their correlation with increased tumor burdens. However, they do not independently predict poor survival. The impact of individual PNS on HCC prognosis varies.

Burden, Outcome, and Comorbidities of Extrahepatic Manifestations in Hepatitis B Virus Infections.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections affect approximately 296 million people around the world, and the prevalence of any past or present HBV infection during the years 2015-2018 was as high as 4.3%. Acute HBV infection often presents with nonspecific symptoms and is usually self-limited, but 5% of patients can have persistent infections leading to chronic HBV infection and the risk of turning into chronic HBV infection is significantly higher in babies with vertical transmission (95%). Patients with chronic HBV infection are usually asymptomatic, but 15 to 40% of chronic HBV carriers develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to liver-related disorders, HBV is also associated with several extrahepatic complications, including glomerulonephritis, cryoglobulinemia, neurologic disorders, psychological manifestations, polyarthritis, and dermatologic disorders. Making the diagnosis of HBV can be challenging since patients with chronic infections can remain symptom-free for decades before developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, and patients with acute HBV infection may have only mild, nonspecific symptoms. Therefore, understanding how this virus causes extrahepatic complications can help clinicians consider this possibility in patients with diverse symptom presentations. The pathophysiology of these extrahepatic disorders likely involves immune-related tissue injury following immune complex formation and inflammatory cascades. In some cases, direct viral infection of extrahepatic tissue may cause a clinical syndrome. Currently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends treatment of chronic HBV infections with interferon therapy and/or nucleos(t)ide analogs, and this treatment has been reported to improve some extrahepatic disorders in some patients with chronic HBV infection. These extrahepatic complications have a significant role in disease outcomes and increase medical costs, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, understanding the frequency and pathogenesis of these extrahepatic complications provides important information for both specialists and nonspecialists and may help clinicians identify patients at an earlier stage of their infection.

Incidentally found parotid gland lesion in 18F-FDG PET/CT for staging evaluation of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: remote possibility of metastatic tumor or second primary salivary gland malignancy.

OBJECTIVES: We primarily aimed to evaluate whether parotid incidental lesion (PIL) in 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) for staging evaluation of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) would represent a possibility of extrahepatic metastasis or second primary malignancy (SPM). Additionally, we explored the incidence of PIL in HCC patients and examined any associated risk factors. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients with HCC who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT at our institution from 2010 to 2022. The pathological findings of PILs in HCC patients were investigated for confirmatory identification of the risk of HCC metastasis or SPM in parotid gland. Healthy controls received 18F-FDG PET/CT for health screening were also enrolled to compare the incidence of PILs with HCC patients. Various parameters associated with patient demographics and characteristics of HCC were analyzed to find the related factors of PILs. RESULTS: A total of 17,674 patients with HCC and 2,090 healthy individuals who had undergone 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were enrolled in the analyses. Among the 54 HCC patients who underwent pathological confirmation for PILs, benign primary parotid tumor was most commonly observed (n = 43 [79.6%]); however, no malignant lesions were detected, including HCC metastasis. The incidence of PILs was higher in patients diagnosed with HCC compared with the control group (485 [2.7%] vs. 23 [1.1%], p = 0.002). Analysis for the risk factors for PILs revealed that patient age, sex, and positive viral markers were significantly associated with the incidence of PILs in patients with HCC (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that PILs are more frequently identified in patients with HCC on 18F-FDG PET/CT. However, no malignant PIL, including extrahepatic metastasis of HCC, was identified. Therefore, the presence of PIL should not impede or delay the treatment process for patients with HCC. Additionally, we suggested that for future swift and straightforward differential diagnoses of PIL, the development of additional protocols within the PET/CT imaging could be beneficial.

SGLT2i impact on HCC incidence in patients with fatty liver disease and diabetes: a nation-wide cohort study in South Korea.

This study evaluated the effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on cancer development, particularly in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in individuals with concomitant fatty liver disease (FLD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Using data from Korea's Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, we performed Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and T2DM (NAFLD-T2DM cohort) and those with chronic viral hepatitis (CVH) alongside FLD and T2DM (FLD-T2DM-CVH cohort). In the propensity score (PS) matched NAFLD-T2DM cohort (N = 107,972), SGLT2i use was not associated with the occurrence of overall cancer, including HCC. However, old age, male sex, liver cirrhosis, and hypothyroidism were identified as independent risk factors for HCC occurrence, whereas statin and fibrate usage were associated with reduced HCC risk in this cohort in multivariate Cox analysis. In the PS-matched FLD-T2DM-CVH cohort (N = 2798), a significant decrease in HCC occurrence was observed among SGLT2i users (P = 0.03). This finding remained consistent in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (Hazard ratio = 2.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-4.85, P = 0.048). In conclusion, SGLT2i may be a beneficial option for diabetes management in patients with concomitant T2DM, FLD, and CVH while affirming the overall safety of SGLT2i in other types of cancer.

Residential mobility and liver cancer risk: findings from a prospective cohort study in Chinese women.

BACKGROUND: Residential mobility is believed to influence the occurrence and development of cancer; however, the results are inconclusive. Furthermore, limited studies have been conducted on Asian populations. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between residential mobility and liver cancer risk among Chinese women. METHODS: We enrolled 72,818 women from urban Shanghai between 1996 and 2000, and then followed them until the end of 2016. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between residential mobility and liver cancer risk. A linear trend test was conducted by ranking variables. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted, excluding participants with follow-up times of less than 2 years, to prevent potential bias. RESULTS: During the 1,269,765 person-years of follow-up, liver cancer was newly diagnosed in 259 patients. Domestic migration (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.44-1.50), especially immigration to Shanghai (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.44-1.50) was associated with an increased risk of liver cancer. In addition, migration frequency, age at initial migration and first immigration to Shanghai had linear trends with an increased liver cancer risk (Ptrend <0.001). The results were similar when excluding participants with less than two years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The possible association between residential mobility and a higher risk of liver cancer in women could suggest the need for effective interventions to reduce adverse environmental exposures and enhance people's health.

Routes to diagnosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients: predictors and associations with treatment and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has increased rapidly, and prognosis remains poor. We aimed to explore predictors of routes to diagnosis (RtD), and outcomes, in HCC cases. METHODS: HCC cases diagnosed 2006-2017 were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the RtD metric. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between RtD, diagnosis year, 365-day mortality and receipt of potentially curative treatment. RESULTS: 23,555 HCC cases were identified; 36.1% via emergency presentation (EP), 30.2% GP referral (GP), 17.1% outpatient referral, 11.0% two-week wait and 4.6% other/unknown routes. Odds of 365-day mortality was >70% lower via GP or OP routes than EP, and odds of curative treatment 3-4 times higher. Further adjustment for cancer/cirrhosis stage attenuated the associations with curative treatment. People who were older, female, had alcohol-related liver disease, or were more deprived, were at increased risk of an EP. Over time, diagnoses via EP decreased, and via GP increased. CONCLUSIONS: HCC RtD is an important predictor of outcomes. Continuing to reduce EP and increase GP and OP presentations, for example by identifying and regularly monitoring patients at higher risk of HCC, may improve stage at diagnosis and survival.

Developing deep learning-based strategies to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: The accuracy of deep learning models for many disease prediction problems is affected by time-varying covariates, rare incidence, covariate imbalance and delayed diagnosis when using structured electronic health records data. The situation is further exasperated when predicting the risk of one disease on condition of another disease, such as the hepatocellular carcinoma risk among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease due to slow, chronic progression, the scarce of data with both disease conditions and the sex bias of the diseases. The goal of this study is to investigate the extent to which the aforementioned issues influence deep learning performance, and then devised strategies to tackle these challenges. These strategies were applied to improve hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: We evaluated two representative deep learning models in the task of predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in a cohort of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 220,838) from a national EHR database. The disease prediction task was carefully formulated as a classification problem while taking censorship and the length of follow-up into consideration. RESULTS: We developed a novel backward masking scheme to deal with the issue of delayed diagnosis which is very common in EHR data analysis and evaluate how the length of longitudinal information after the index date affects disease prediction. We observed that modeling time-varying covariates improved the performance of the algorithms and transfer learning mitigated reduced performance caused by the lack of data. In addition, covariate imbalance, such as sex bias in data impaired performance. Deep learning models trained on one sex and evaluated in the other sex showed reduced performance, indicating the importance of assessing covariate imbalance while preparing data for model training. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies developed in this work can significantly improve the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Furthermore, our novel strategies can be generalized to apply to other disease risk predictions using structured electronic health records, especially for disease risks on condition of another disease.

Prognostic analysis of sex and age in hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the impact of sex on clinical features and survival among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. METHODS: HCC case data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period 2010 to 2015 were selected for analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves displayed overall survival. Univariate cox regression examined the prognostic characteristics of individual features, and multivariate Cox regression assessed hazard ratios. RESULTS: This study comprised 3486 HCC patients, with 2682 males and 804 females. Across all age groups, there was a higher prevalence of males compared to females. Survival curves among female patients showed no significant differences across various age groups. However, among male patients, those under 60 demonstrated notably higher survival rates compared to those aged 60 and above. Regarding various ethnicities, TNM staging systems, tumor sizes, the presence of lung/bone/brain metastases, location in Purchased/Referred Care Delivery Areas, SEER historic stages, tumor grades, and individuals receiving chemotherapy, the proportion of male patients consistently exceeded that of female patients. Within the female patient group, individuals receiving chemotherapy exhibited significantly higher survival rates compared to those who did not. However, the administration of chemotherapy showed no significant impact on the survival rate of male patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy key factors influencing the overall survival prognosis. CONCLUSION: Age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy are influential factors in the prognosis of both male and female HCC patients.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance.

BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

Nationwide Longitudinal Annual Survey of HIV/AIDS Referral Hospitals in Japan From 1999 to 2021: Trend in Non-AIDS-defining Cancers Among Individuals Infected With HIV-1.

BACKGROUND: Non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) in patients infected with HIV have recently attracted attention because of the improved survival of this patient population. To obtain accurate data, a longitudinal study is warranted for the nationwide surveillance of the current status and national trend of NADCs in patients infected with HIV in Japan. SETTING: An annual nationwide surveillance of NADCs in patients infected with HIV-1 in Japan from 1999 to 2021. METHODS: An annual questionnaire was sent to 378 HIV/AIDS referral hospitals across Japan to collect data (clusters of differentiation 4-positive lymphocytes, time of onset, outcomes, and antiretroviral therapy status) of patients diagnosed with any of the NADCs between 1999 and 2021. RESULTS: The response and case-capture rates for the questionnaires in 2021 were 37.8% and 81.2%, respectively. The number of reported NADC cases subsequently increased since the beginning of this study. Evaluation of the case counts of NADCs demonstrated a high incidence of lung, colorectal, gastric, and liver cancers as the top 4 cancers. Pancreatic cancer (0.63), lung cancer (0.49), and leukemia (0.49) had the highest mortality rates among the NADCs. Trends of NADCs regarding transmission routes were maintained over the years in male individuals who have sex with male individuals compared with heterosexual male individuals and female individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated an increasing trend in the incidence of NADCs over a period of 23 years in Japan. The current data highlighted the importance of raising awareness regarding cancer management for patients infected with HIV in Japan.

Statin Use and Liver Cancer Risk: A Meta-Epidemiological Study of Retrospective Cohort Studies by the Types of Constructed Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Previous systematic reviews of retrospective cohorts (RSC) indicate that statin use decreases the risk of liver cancer. However, the summary effect size (sES) of the randomized controlled trials was not statistically significant. This study aimed to conduct a subgroup meta-analysis based on the types of constructed cohorts. METHODS: RSCs were selected from previous systematic reviews. Based on the characteristics of the source database (national vs. hospital) and the selection criteria of the subjects (population vs. patients), RSCs were categorized into three types of study cohorts: a national-based population cohort (NPo), national-based patient cohort (NPa), and hospital-based patient cohort (HPa). The sES and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULT: The 28 cohorts from 23 RSC were classified into 15 NPa, 7 NPo, and 6 HPa. The sES of 15 NPa decreased the liver cancer risk with statin intake history with statistical significance, but 7 NPo lost statistical significance. CONCLUSION: The lack of statistical significance in NPo supports the argument that the conclusions of existing systematic reviews on RSC have low validity. It is necessary to conduct a subgroup meta-analysis of the NPo, NPa, and HPa proposed in this study when conducting a systematic review of RSCs, which will evaluate various outcomes of a specific drug intake with time-varying exposure.

Meta-analysis: Incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Fontan palliation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Fontan palliation is the final stage of surgery for many children born with univentricular physiology. Almost all Fontan patients develop liver fibrosis which may eventually lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). These are important causes of morbidity and mortality in these patients. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC in Fontan patients and stratify it based on time since surgery. METHODS: A literature search of seven databases identified 1158 records. Studies reporting the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases in Fontan patients and time since Fontan surgery were included. In the cirrhosis cohort, we included only those studies where all patients underwent liver biopsy. RESULTS: A total of 23 studies were included: 12 and 13 studies in the cirrhosis and HCC cohorts, respectively, with two studies included in both cohorts. The incidence of cirrhosis was 0.97 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.57-1.63), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 1.61 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.24-2.08) and 32.2% (95% CI 25.8%-39.4%), respectively. The incidence of HCC was 0.12 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.07-0.21), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 0.20 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.12-0.35) and 3.9% (95% CI 2.2%-6.8%), respectively. Only about 70% of patients with HCC (20/28) had underlying cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The incidence of cirrhosis and HCC increases over time, especially at ≥20 years post Fontan surgery. Studies are needed to further identify at-risk patients in order to streamline surveillance for these highly morbid conditions.